27. May. 2010. – 12:13:52
Those of us who are literate enough to read and/or write assimilate so much information on a daily basis that our mind is programmed to act as a very efficient filter retaining in either our long term or short term memory areas only the information which sub consciously or consciously we would wish to retrieve at some future time. Events, in the widest possible use of that word, will tend to be retained if they are so outwith our normal experiences they provide a form of template against which others could be judged. Such was the experience I had when I noticed the following headline in the on line Register; "Statistics prof nails Blackpool hoopla scam".
Who hasn`t played hoopla? Throw a ring around a peg and bag a prize. Along with "roll the penny" hoopla was the most widely played stall at local carnivals and fun fairs when I was allowed out with friends and no parents to bother us......I was about 11 at the time. Anybody eg who accepts the challenge to "find the lady" from an East European on the pavement in London`s Oxford Street deserves no sympathy for his/her loss but a hoopla stall in Blackpool??????
On a few occasions I have queried the veracity and purpose of the statistics produced by those who are interested in propagating their opinions on whether crime and everything associated with it is going up, down or sideways. It would appear that Lancaster University statistics lecturer Dr David Lucy showed it would take a player over 2,622 attempts to “stand a 99 per cent probability of success” to throw a hoop over the peg at a stall run by Darren Casey. Without having the academic expertise to comment on the maths of the statement of likelihood of success but believing that there is rarely 100% probability of anything apart from death and taxes he seems to be saying that the punters were being ripped off. Blackpool magistrates agreed. Casey was sentenced to 14 weeks custody, suspended for one year, ordered to complete 270 hours of community service and pay £2,000 in court costs. He also pleaded guilty to "allowing a child to gamble", and was handed 135 hours of community service and ordered to cough £575 in costs.
Perhaps Dr Lucy should be invited to study crime statistics produced by Uncle Tom Cobley and all and find out if any cheating has been going on?
Who hasn`t played hoopla? Throw a ring around a peg and bag a prize. Along with "roll the penny" hoopla was the most widely played stall at local carnivals and fun fairs when I was allowed out with friends and no parents to bother us......I was about 11 at the time. Anybody eg who accepts the challenge to "find the lady" from an East European on the pavement in London`s Oxford Street deserves no sympathy for his/her loss but a hoopla stall in Blackpool??????
On a few occasions I have queried the veracity and purpose of the statistics produced by those who are interested in propagating their opinions on whether crime and everything associated with it is going up, down or sideways. It would appear that Lancaster University statistics lecturer Dr David Lucy showed it would take a player over 2,622 attempts to “stand a 99 per cent probability of success” to throw a hoop over the peg at a stall run by Darren Casey. Without having the academic expertise to comment on the maths of the statement of likelihood of success but believing that there is rarely 100% probability of anything apart from death and taxes he seems to be saying that the punters were being ripped off. Blackpool magistrates agreed. Casey was sentenced to 14 weeks custody, suspended for one year, ordered to complete 270 hours of community service and pay £2,000 in court costs. He also pleaded guilty to "allowing a child to gamble", and was handed 135 hours of community service and ordered to cough £575 in costs.
Perhaps Dr Lucy should be invited to study crime statistics produced by Uncle Tom Cobley and all and find out if any cheating has been going on?
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