THE BUTTERFLY EFFECT AND THE CRIMINAL JUSTICE SYSTEM

 

03. Jul. 2010. – 14:57:40

When a friend of mine was complaining not so long ago about the cock up various train companies had caused him from misleading information about fares/timetables/changes to the dirty carriages and poor service on a journey from Exeter to Edinburgh I began to think of what does it take to make clean trains run on time providing the customer with a journey that he could describe as better than expected...a term used by retail market analysts to analyse the "customer experience". Do we really need an Italian megalomaniac to achieve this outcome?

The above tale can be understood by millions of us who rely on mass transport systems to convey us for 100 miles or 10,000. What then of a criminal justice system with its n-1 combinations and permutations of individual activities by hundreds of organisations and millions of participants which attempts to investigate an isolated incident where law might have been broken to dealing with the offender. Whatever other statistics might or might not reveal it has been recognised for a long time that about 3% of criminal acts end up with a conviction.

The current political hot potato of sentencing/prison population is an attempt by the purse holder to save money; a laudable target but one fraught with potential chaos as a result. I am sure Kenneth Clarke is familiar with the term “The Butterfly Effect”. Does the flap of a Butterfly’s Wings in Brazil set off a Tornado in Texas? It does not take such an esoteric scenario to predict that further tampering in the manner contemplated by the Rt. Honourable member will lead to considerably more waves than a tornado in the Gulf of Mexico.

By expressing his desire for those currently sentenced to six months or fewer in custody to be rehabilitated in the “community” by which he means under the auspices of the Probation Service or yet to be created profit orientated businesses we would consider that thought has been given to the budgets of local probation services and similar organisations that the desired results might be achievable. Unless there are plans still held in the basements of Whitehall it seems that future offenders in the Tees Valley probation area will notice no additional attempts by case workers to get them to stay on the paths of righteousness because 10% of the staff won`t be working there next year. Their jobs will have disappeared in the "cuts". Someone somewhere within the Coalition`s backroom must have the ability and wherewithal to produce a coherent analysis so that the butterfly in Birmingham does not interfere with a trial in Taunton.

Never has the termed “joined up thinking” been more required than for the next five years of budget restraint.